Wednesday, March 21, 2007

The road to the Super 8s


I may be a week late in writing this, but then a week back everything seemed so pedestrian in the World Cup. The top teams were steamrolling the minnows and everything seemed to be set for the top 8 countries to make it through without fuss to the next round.

But what a week it's been! This is hands-down the most eventful world cup ever! It has had everything! Drama, excitement, tragedy, heroism ... everything a person would want in a movie or book of their choice.

First we had the juvenile quarrelling between two of the biggest prima-donnas in cricket Ponting and Gavaskar.

Then we had the marvelous Gibbs' etching his name in the annals of cricket with his six 6s in an over.

Then the Irish played in one of the best games I have had the pleasure of watching by tying the Zimbabweans for a tie.

After that was the day when two featherweights knocked out two of the biggest names in cricket! The Bangla tigers rode some fearless performances to upset the insipid Indians while the fabulous Shamrocks created one of the greatest upsets in the history of the game by beating the Pakistanis.

As if that were not enough Bob Woolmer collapsed and died (causes yet unknown) and Inzi one of the most beloved and respected cricketers hailing from Pakistan announced his retirement from all ODI cricket.

As I write this normalcy has been resumed with the top 8 teams getting by the minnows quite convincingly, but with a week left of first round action to go, glorious uncertainties still remain about some of the teams figuring in the second phase of this tournament.

Group A

Australia & South Africa - Although they still have to play each other, they are in the Super 8s for sure. Both teams hammered their hapless opponents so far and have shown that they are probably the best bet for the finals to be held on Apr 28. The Aussies have dispelled all talk of them being in suspect form while the Saffers have done what they always do in the beginning phases of almost every World Cup they have played in - Dominated.

Their match against each other will be very important for both. Not only does the winning team take 2 valuable points through to the next round, the psychological advantage gained over the other will go a long way in deciding the winner in their next matchup in the Semi-finals or the finals.

To progress

Australia - Already in. Beating S.Africa will give them 2 points to carry into the Super 8s
S.Africa - Already in. Beating Aus will give them 2 points to carry into the Super 8s

Out - Netherlands, Scotland

Group B

Sri Lanka - They are in imposing form as well. They have hammered the Bermudans and finished off the Bangladeshis in clinical fashion. With their batsmen in blistering form and with dangerman Jayasuriya looking good, the Sri Lankans look like another potential finalist at the moment.

The thrashing they have handed the Bangladeshis today should be enough to take them through to the next round, but a desperate India awaits them on Friday. Barring a thrashing at the hands of the Indians and the Bangladeshis beating the Bermudas by a margin of ~350 runs, they are through. However the Lankans will hope to repeat their performance today and go into the Super 8 with 2 points by beating India.

Bangladesh - With the Lankans in such imposing form, the Bangladeshis will not be wrong in hoping for the second Super 8 spot on offer today. They should be able to beat the Bermudans easily, however if India beats the Sri Lankans, barring a miraculous effort with bat and ball against the Bermudans, they will not make it through.

The Bangladeshis disappointed everyone with their minnow-like performance against Sri Lanka. They have almost lost all the respect they gained by beating India on Saturday. Now instead of everyone commenting about how much they have improved they will revert back to saying that the Bangladeshis can only pull out fluke victories. They have harmed their chances greatly today. Every Bangladeshi supporter will be behind Sri Lanka when the Lankans take on the Indians in a couple of days.

India - Thanks to a good performance against Bermuda, the Indians hold their destiny in their own two hands. A simple win over Sri Lanka will be enough to propel the Indians along with 2 points into the next round. However after a pathetic performance against Bangladesh and a bad bowling performance against Bermuda, a win against the rampant Lankans looks doubtful. However the Indians have played well against Sri Lanka lately (albeit at home) and a win does not seem impossible. Hopefully the Indians will play to their potential and the bowling attack bowl within their means so that the Indians beat the Lankans

To Progress

Sri Lanka - They should be good as far as the Super 8s are concerned. However they would like to get into the Super 8s with 2 pts. To do this they have to beat India. So they will come out with their game face on as well on Friday.

Bangladesh - Their hopes rest heavily on Sri Lanka beating India. If the Indians win on Friday, the Bangladeshis will have to defeat the Bermudans by a record margin. However going by the way the Lankans are currently playing they should fancy their chances of making it to the Super 8s.

India - Considered to a pre-tournament favorite, the Indians are already facing their first do or die situation. Expected to waltz into the Super 8s the Indians face elimination unless they beat Sri Lanka. If they do they will go into the second round with a handy 2 pt lead.

Bermuda - Believe it or not Bermuda still has a mathematical chance of making it to the next round although it is almost a negligible one. For this to happen, India has to be annihilated by Sri Lanka and they will need to thrash the Bangladeshis by an unheard of margin as well. However the Bangladeshis should ride over them, so they should be looking to play for some pride in their final game.

Group C

New Zealand - They have looked good in patches and not so good in others. However they haven't dominated any team like the South Africans and Australians have so far, so I cannot comment about how good they are. They have made it through to the next round already with 2 points, regardless of their third result.

England - Things look a little dicey for the English. On current form it seems that the Kenyans could usurp their Super 8 spot when the two meet up on Saturday the 24th. They looked a little patchy against the Canadians and just couldn't use the initial breakthroughs they made against the Kiwis in their first game to press for a win.

Still they will go in as favorites against Kenya, but given the course of this World Cup, who knows what lies in store for the English. This weekend could be another "upset" weekend with two more major cricketing nations crashing out the world cup.

Kenya - If they can raise their game they could ambush this English team that seems very low on confidence. A lot rides on the shoulders of their captain Steve Tikolo who almost single-handedly beat the Canadians in their first game. They can make it past the first round like they did in 2003 with a win over England. Given the state of affairs back home over the past few years, even doing this would be a huge achievement for this team.

Out - Canada

To Progress

New Zealand - Already in. Just needs to ensure that they rout Canada to graduate from dark horses to a favourite. A couple of their players such as Lou Vincent who hasn't fired so far could use this game as a launching pad to good form and confidence.

England - Have to beat Kenya. A simple win will do to take them through.

Kenya - Have to beat England to qualify. A simple win will do as well.

Group D

West Indies - Before the tournament started not many would have bet on the Windies topping the group. However thanks to a pathetic showing by Pakistan, they are riding high in this group. They are in the Super 8 no matter what their third result is. However they will be looking to beat Ireland on Friday to take two invaluable pts into the Super 8s.

Ireland - Surely the story of the World Cup so far. They have been the toast of the tournament and been the underdog that every cricket fan (other than Pakistani) loves to support! They are already in the Super 8s, but will look to getting a couple of pts against the Windies to see if they can extend their stay in the Caribbean.

Out - Pakistan, Zimbabwe

To Progress

Both Ireland and the West Indies will want to win on Friday. It seems very unlikely that the Irish can beat the West Indies, but then this World Cup has already seen some upsets. We could be in for another on Friday the 23rd.

My Predictions

Although I think India will beat Sri Lanka on Friday (just because the consequences of losing is too terrible to imagine for the Indian players), going by recent match form I realistically think the Lankans will beat India and Bangladesh will make it through to the Super 8s.

England should defeat Kenya and join the Kiwis in the Super 8s as the Kenyans are just lacking the oomph needed to defeat England unless a lot of things go their way. However, these English are almost South Asian in nature. They seem to throw away a lot of good positions to end up in losing ones. So who knows?

Regardless, this week is going to be a very interesting time to be a cricket fan.

1 comment:

Amit said...

Bharath,U know pretty well what I think about the Lankans, right?(its too graphic to say it here) So they better loose this friday. playing as they did yesterday, looks like a long shot though.